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Australia-U.S.
Free Trade Agreement; Plenty of Jokers
With much of CII’s activities geared
to the South Pacific, we naturally take a
great interest in new developments there.
The recent Australian-U.S. Free Trade Agreement
is a major evolution in the business and commercial
relationship between the two countries. From
the U.S. standpoint, the Agreement is a win-win
situation. More than 99 per cent of American
manufactured exports to Australia now will
be free of all import duties. As an air cargo
wholesaler overwhelmingly moving finished
manufactured goods as well as spare parts
and components for our forwarder customers
to Australia, CII expects to benefit from
this new trade agreement.
From the Aussie side, the
picture is far less rosy. So one sided is
the agreement favoring the U.S., many in the
Australian public and Parliament protested
the new accord. For an advanced nation with
a very high standard of living, Australia
surprisingly has little industry. Its exports
are almost wholly agricultural and raw material
products. It is just these products that the
U.S. Trade Commission refused to consider
for duty elimination. Beef, for example, the
largest single export to the U.S., will retain
its high tariffs because of objections from
U.S. cattle ranchers who complained that “cheap”
Australian beef would cost thousands of U.S.
jobs.
Perhaps the most egregious
example of U.S. lobbying muscle was the sugar
industry. Sugar was taken off the table during
negotiations, with U.S. trade representatives
insisting there was to be no change in the
tiny Australian sugar quota. If changes were
even contemplated, the entire Trade Agreement
would be scuttled. The sugar lobby is a disgrace
to the United States. Here is a minuscule
group of sugar growers in politically powerful
states throughout the South and Southwest
making policy for the $1 trillion generated
by U.S. trade with the rest of the world.
Speaking as a freight forwarder whose customers
will benefit, I applaud the new Australian-U.S.
trade agreement. Speaking as a new American,
I am ashamed at the enormous pressures placed
on the Australians epitomized by a personal
telephone call from President Bush to Australian
Prime Minister John Howard, urging adoption
of the agreement
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Another
Loader Becomes A Co-Loader!
Keith Loader, our Chicago
representative, convinced still another member
of his family to get into the coloading business,
better known as wholesaling. Last February,
his nephew, Ian Loader, joined CII as Vice
President, Eastern Region, with headquarters
at New York’s JFK. Before venturing out to
the big airport in Queens, Ian spent the previous
three months being tutored by the best teacher
in the business—his uncle Keith! From driving
a forklift to pallet building, to mastering
the paperwork, to negotiating with the airlines,
to looking after customers, Ian had to learn
fast or he would have been cut up by the great
white sharks in our business!
When Ian joined CII in February,
it was sink or swim. We threw him into the
deep end of the pool, knowing his three month
stint with Keith would stand him in good stead.
The results? Uncle Keith would be proud of
his nephew’s progress and achievements in
that snake pit called JFK cargo. It’s one
of the toughest freight environments in the
world, especially for a non-New Yorker. Here
we are, headquarters in Los Angeles with a
midwesterner heading our N.Y. operations.
Yet, our business is growing by leaps and
bounds.
Keep up the excellent work,
Ian. We’re not the only ones who think so.
Feedback from customers and airlines is, they
think you are number one in their books.
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Airline
Security Gets Tighter Because Of Stowaways
Last
autumn, Kitty Hawk received a great deal of
unwanted attention when it was discovered
that a man “shipped” himself in a box from
New York to Dallas on one of the cargo carrier’s
airplanes. Far less publicity was given to
a more recent incident involving three men
from the Dominican Republic. They shrink wrapped
themselves in a pallet on a Capital Cargo
International flight and were discovered when
they attempted to tear themselves out at Miami
International Airport. This incident seems
to have galvanized a number of U.S. carriers
to step up security procedures, particularly
Northwest Airlines.
Northwest has put forwarders
on notice that it will start random inspection
of freight, including opening packages it
considers “suspicious.” This new action will
pose a serious dilemma for all forwarders,
particularly those who handle customers’ shipments
from Asia. Northwest, of course, is the largest
combination carrier in terms of cargo and
is the only American passenger airline with
all freighter service out of the everincreasingly
important Asian market. Once again, forwarders
are faced with an almost insoluble problem;
making sure cargo coming into the U.S. is
properly screened and inspected yet making
money from time definite transportation.
As Yul Bryner sang in “The King & I,” is a
puzzlement. That “puzzlement must be
solved if air freight can continue
serving customers with the
speed and preciseness of
delivery they expect, while obeying
tougher security rules.
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GM’s
J-I-T Strategy Backfires
Readers of our Newsletter will remember my
criticism of the “gung ho” just-intimers;
those ideologues who proclaimed that anyone
who didn’t believe in the J-IT mantra were
hopeless fuddy-duddies, 100 years behind the
times and should be drummed out of the air
freight business. My criticism of J-I-T was
based on thirty years experience in cargo;
that no one system or methodology answers
the very many different needs of shippers.
The latest event, involving General Motors
and Just-In-Time delivery of raw steel for
GM’s assembly lines, illustrates my contention.
Readers of our Newsletter will remember When
Just-In-Time first made its appearance about
fifteen years ago, the car companies were
among its earliest and most fervent apostles.
“We’re going to save millions by moving parts
and supplies at the last minute to avoid excess
inventory costs,” said the auto makers. “We’re
also going to cut down on the number of suppliers
so that we can better monitor the flow of
auto parts,” they continued.
Yes, the auto makers saved
millions but it seems they will be losing
hundreds of millions of dollars to cover rising
steel costs. Rather than risk cutting off
its supply of parts since inventory deliberately
was cut to next to nothing according to the
gospel of J-I-T, GM reluctantly will pay its
suppliers the higher cost of steel to ensure
on-time delivery. This incident illustrates
once again how vulnerable companies have become
after years of streamlining their supply chains
and relying on a smaller number of suppliers.
GM admitted that without paying the higher
steel prices for its purchases, “our plants
would have to shut down.” Here is another
example of Just-In-Time ideology swamping
common sense. J-I-T, in many cases, does save
on inventory costs but a careful eye should
be kept to ensure that the shipper doesn’t
save a penny to lose a pound.
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Air; More Lives Than The Proverbial Cat
Arrow
Air is a melancholy example of why cargo airlines
seem to possess the nine lives of proverbial
cats. They never seem to go out business.
Here is an airline with a long history of
inept management, shaky financial base, miserable
service and maintenance performance, and even
a fatal crash which took the lives of more
than 200 U.S. servicemen on the snowy fields
of Newfoundland. Yet, it continues to fly
with some equipment more than forty years
old. Perhaps even more amazing is the willingness
of investor groups to keep funding this poor
excuse of an airline. Despite our year being
only three months old, Arrow already has been
sold twice in 2004 to different investment
groups after filing for bankruptcy in January.
Arrow Air is a melancholy
example of Arrow’s situation is very similar
to that of freight forwarder GeoLogistics,
another loser, in which Arrow has had an almost
incestuous relationship. Arrow was the principal
carrier for Geo’s previous incarnation, LEP
Profit out of Puerto Rico to the U.S. Mainland
primarily carrying pharmaceuticals for the
forwarder’s customers. That service generated
a chorus of complaints from the likes of Pfizer,
Schering Plough, Bristol Myers Squibb and
other drug makers about miserable service.
What is there about the airline
and air freight business that makes normally
hardheaded businessmen turn into wild-eyed
romantics? GeoLogistics and its predecessor
companies have lost millions of dollars during
the past decade, yet continues to be funded
by investor groups who seemingly believe miracles
will happen. Arrow is but one example of how
cargo airlines keep flying through clouds
of red ink. Kitty Hawk only recently came
out of bankruptcy. Ditto with Connie Kallita’s
stable of airlines. Even a much stronger BAX
Global finally recorded a profit last year
after fifteen years of flying as an all-cargo
carrier.
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Asian
Air Freight; Too Much Of A Good Thing?
The current Asian air freight market is the
latest example of why freight forwarders increasingly
grow old before their time. What some commentators
are calling “an early spring,” Asian-U.S.
air freight volume is spiking to all time
highs. Yet, for our industry, these huge volumes
of cargo ex-Asia, particularly China, is turning
into one big headache. What’s causing this
migraine? No big mystery. Asian cargo gateways
are flooded with freight and lift capacity
can’t keep up with demand. Backlog at Seoul’s
airport alone is approaching 500 tons. With
this huge increase in volume, as surely as
night follows day, airlines are raising their
rates. Ad hoc booking tariffs have jumped
40 per cent more than rates quoted last year.
Spot kilo rates have jumped 50 per cent in
many cases; from $2 to $ per kilo. More insidiously,
a number of airlines is insisting forwarders
upgrade to premium or express service to ensure
space—often at rates two and three times consol
tariffs.
What’s a forwarder
to do? Even the famed flexibility of forwarders can’t overcome
fully the extraordinarily tight space
between Asia and the U.S.. We’re moving
cargo from Asia to North America via
Europe and Australia. We’re persuading
carriers to move more freighters into
northern Asia where demand is greatest.
CII is particularly fortunate in that we
have live wire agents in China and Hong
Kong who are moving our cargo on time
and at realistic rates. It will be interesting
to see if these huge amounts of cargo will
continue as the year progresses. Or will it
slacken as the U.S. economy slows down
with a continuing dearth of jobs and less
consumer spending.
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